Friday, March 7, 2008

Charlie Crist for President

I watched the Florida governor, Charlie Crist, last night on Chris Matthews' show, and I was impressed. I'd never really been exposed to him before, other than during the Florida primaries when he stumped for McCain. But his performance last night was masterful.

The discussion centered on Hillary's bid to make the Florida and Michigan primaries count. Now that she has "momentum," she apparently wants to avoid the good voters in those two states becoming disenfranchised (read: "In spite of my 'momentum,' I only picked up a net three delegates on Obama. Crying isn't working any more, being nasty isn't working so hot either, and Bill - don't get me started on Bill. So I've gotta do something, and quick!).

Never mind the fact that nobody campaigned in those states, and Obama wasn't even on the ballot in Michigan. Hillary won both (like I win when I play myself in checkers), so now she wants them to count.

There are several options. One, tell them tough cookies - you didn't play by the rules, the DNC made its decision, so the votes don't count. But that seems so ... undemocratic (at least to Hillary it does). Two, split the delegates according to how the voters voted. But Hillary doesn't like that either; she only beat Obama 50% to 33% in Florida, and she only beat "undecided" in Michigan (where supporters of Obama and Edwards, who was also left off the ballot there, were encouraged to vote "undecided") by a 55-40 margin. Bottom line: Hillary would pick up less than 40 delegates on Obama.

Another option is to just seat all the delegates at the convention and let them vote their will. Nobody likes that one, because then any state could violate its party's primary or caucus rules, then demand to be seated.

The last option is a good old schoolyard do-over. The biggest problem is that it would cost about $25 million or so to do it. And that raises questions as to who's going to pay. (As an aside, Obama doesn't like this one either, as he's apparently been drinking the "Hillary's got the momentum" kool-aid. Note to Barack: you're 13-3 in the last sixteen contests, and you've been the front-runner all along. Just keep doing what you've been doing, and you're golden.)

Back to who would pay for a re-vote. Michigan and Florida can't afford it. Florida's taking a bath from the housing melt-down, and so - to a slightly lesser extent - is Michigan. The latter state is also suffering from the growing slump in the US factory sector. Both face lower tax revenues this year, both from property taxes and individual and corporate income taxes. And Florida may have to bail out a state investment fund that made some bad subprime bets.

The DNC could pay for it, but good old Howard Dean ("Yeeeaaaahhhh!!!!") is thus far resisting. The candidates could pay - Lord knows they can raise the dough - but all the money they've raised, they've already spent.

Now, Charlie Crist first got dragged into this thing when some Dems accused him of orchestrating the violation of the DNC's rules, when Florida moved up its primaries to an earlier date. Give me a break. If a Republican governor had done something to sabotage the Democratic primary in his state, don't you think somebody would have cried foul back then? Don't you think the Florida Dems would have gone howling to Howard Dean (no pun intended) then, instead of coming up with this vast right-wing conspiracy theory now?

So, Charlie finds himself being interviewed by Chris Matthews (whose fawning manner, and that annoying little drool thing he's got going, are pretty annoying sometimes). And he reminded me of Babe Ruth. He pointed to his spot over the wall, and then knocked the ball flat out of the park.

He said the voters of Florida shouldn't be disenfranchised, Democrat or Republican, and cited his constitutional duty to lobby on their behalf for their votes to count. He also pointed out that his state couldn't be expected to pay for a re-vote, especially given the current economic environment (plus, imagine the Florida Republican taxpayers' reaction to having to foot the bill for a Democratic blunder).

So why do I view this as knocking the ball out of the park? What makes it a brilliant performance, a political coup de grace?

Let's use an investment analogy. Sometimes, instead of buying into a market, you just want to be long or short volatility in that market. Charlie, a Republican, doesn't want to put his money on Obama or Clinton necessarily. But his party benefits from volatility among the Democrats. The nastier this mess gets, the better for the GOP. And Charlie can contribute to the volatility, while looking like a bi-partisan champion of his constituents' constitutional rights.

Matthews was clever enough to spot this, and basically asked Charlie what he had to say to anyone who would accuse him of having that ulterior motive. And Charlie - with a disarming sincerity - deftly deflected the parry, placing the whole thing in the lap of the Democrats by noting that Florida Senator Bill Nelson, whom he called "my friend," a Democrat and Hillary supporter, felt the same way, as did Democrat and Michigan Governor Jennifer Granholm. And, he reminded Chris that he has a constitutional obligation to represent his constituents' constitutional rights, as the governor of all the people of Florida, regardless of party affiliation. As my daughter's boyfriend often says, "Sweet."

As for the volatility argument, Karl Rove noted that all this attention on the Democrats could work to McCain's disadvantage, in that he'd fade out of the limelight while the Dems duke it out. In making that point, Rove said that sometimes even bad press is good, as long as it's press. Tell that to Gary Hart. Nobody remembers who beat him after the Donna Rice debacle. But we all remember Gary, Donna, the name of the boat, the island they sailed to, the jeans company Donna went on to model for ... you get the idea. Yet the other guy won. And a "W" trumps media attention, every time.

The latest rumor is that Charlie is on McCain's VP short list (which McCain denies having at this point, to which I raise the BS flag). After watching him set up not just one of his opposition-party candidates, not just both, but the entire party, I can only say that he'd be a very good pick.

Now, pass the popcorn.

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