Friday, September 19, 2008

I'M MAD AS HELL, AND I'M NOT GOING TO TAKE IT ANYMORE!!

I'd like to type this entire post in all caps, but for the sake of my readers, I'll refrain. But I am mad - hoppin' mad!

Today, my nation's government went socialist. We trumped the New Deal. I can only hope that when they start to try to put this absolutely ridiculously untenable idea down on paper, they realize the futility, and it falls apart. Actually, I think that'll happen.

We spent all $50 billion of the Exchange Stabilization Fund - created during the failed New Deal to shore up the shaky US dollar - to guarantee money market mutual funds.

That's right, folks - mutual funds, in which investors, taking risks they should understand, put their money because they're too freaking greedy to settle for the safe haven of insured bank deposits, and want the higher yields offered by riskier money market funds. They're supposed to be doing that with full knowledge that, unlike an insured bank or thrift or credit union deposit, they could lose their investment.

Well, after one money fund "broke the buck" this week (that is, traded at a Net Asset Value below $1, which money funds strive to maintain), for only the second time in 35 years, and another fund announced it would self-liquidate, the Socialists stepped in and committed the entire ESF to bailing those losers out - never mind that the ESF wasn't intended for that. I'm not even sure these clowns have the authority to spend the ESF for this purpose, though I don't think they really care at this point. We're in a financial police state.

Why did they take this action? Money funds total about $3 trillion, and they feared a run. Money funds invest in asset-backed commercial paper (ABCP), a market that's already been decimated by reckless, excessive risk taking. A run would result in forced liquidations, which would further depress ABCP prices, resulting in global portfolio devaluations. Money funds also invest heavily in government-sponsored enterprise (read: Fannie and Freddie) discount notes, and now that we own Fannie and Freddie, we can't have our friends overseas losing money on their crap, now can we? So again, we have a massive wealth transfer from the US taxpayer to investors, including a large number of foreign investors.

They tried to pitch this as not being a burden on the taxpayer, since the ESF was already funded. Well, guess what? It was funded by taxpayer dollars. So while it didn't "cost" this generation of taxpayers - yet - it'll have to be replenished if Washington wants to keep it alive. And with the current New Deal-happy crowd inside the Beltway, they probably want to make it even bigger. So the current herd of taxpayers - you and me - are indeed on the hook. Add at least $50 billion to the $500 billion deficit we'll be funding next year.

What else did they do? Well, not much at this point, because for the rest of it, they need Congressional approval. Every American should write their Congressman/woman and Senator and scream:

"IF YOU DARE VOTE FOR THIS STUPID THING, YOUR ARSE IS COMING HOME!! NOW!!"

But we don't have the fortitude - we're lemmings, and we'll eat what we're fed. We'll keep nursing at the New Deal teat, too ignorant to recognize that it is not, in fact, the only alternative, nor even the best of unpalatable alternatives.

Not this dude, though. I'm not voting this year, unless I vote for Ron Paul, who seemed to get this. McCain doesn't. Obama certainly doesn't - heck, he went so far as to say, "Let's not just bail out Wall Street - let's bail out the taxpayer, too." Does this idiot not get that a bailout is paid for by taxpayers? Why would I want to be forced by my government to bail out ... myself? Oh yeah, now I remember - he wants me, who sits in the top bracket, to bail out the rest of the taxpayers! So in his world, this isn't a taxpayer problem, it's just a top-bracket problem. Palin doesn't get this either, I'm sure, and Biden couldn't spell ESF if you spotted him the E.

Furthermore, I think I'll quit paying on my mortgage, and I'll be damned if I ever file another tax return. Do you hear me, IRS? Come and get me. I don't care anymore.

See, they want to buy up all the bad mortgage debt held by all the irresponsible greedy morons who made bad investment decisions to build up their fat bonuses. While guys like me played it on the up-and-up, and were happy with what we got. And, they want to bail out the irresponsible borrowers who over-leveraged themselves into McMansions, too. While I bought a house I could afford, after saving a big enough down payment to not have to pay mortgage insurance, and took a fixed-rate loan even though an ARM would have been cheaper, let alone an option ARM.

So where's my bailout?

If they do pass this ugly monster, our deficit will more than double in three years - it'll be over a trillion dollars. Does anybody out there get that? China will not touch our debt at current yields, so rates will have to go up - way up - if we're going to fund this debacle. Nobody thinks about that, except me.

On that topic, two people that follow my stuff have told me in the last two days, "You predicted all this." And, to pat myself on the back a bit, I'm giving an economic presentation in Arizona next week, and to supplement the handouts (in the spirit of supplementing handouts, which is all the rage in Washington these days), I included a presentation I made in 2001 where I predicted much of what's happening right now.

But, when my friends pointed out that I've gotten this right, I told them, "I feel like the 'I see dead people' kid - I don't know if this is a gift, or a curse."

Back on topic, though, interest rates will go up. They'll have to go up - a lot. That'll price millions more Americans out of the housing market, and jack up their credit card rates. So the house of cards will crumble anyway.

But you know what? I won't care. This thing comes at a perfect time for me. I'm three years away from early retirement (though my biggest concern is that I'll be paid out in US dollars - maybe I need to pull a Gisele and re-negotiate my contract to get paid in euros - or bullion). Real estate is going to underperform for a long time, due to us boomers retiring and needing less in the way of housing. My daughter is off to college next year, so why do we need 3,000 square feet of house?

I've been thinking about mission work anyway. Africa's cheap - heck, Grandma Obama lives on a buck and a half a day. I could live like a king there, and do some real good for humanity. I'm sure my dogs would love running around in Africa. And they've got some great beaches there.

So, sayonara, suckers (actually, I should be speaking Chinese, not Japanese). You all can pay for this if you want to. Color me gone, though. I didn't sign on to be a socialist.

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