Delta Force!

The topic, in case you can't figure it out is the "dreaded" Delta variant of the SARS-CoV2 virus. We're being told that it's the most transmissible, most deadly variant of all, and that those who aren't vaccinated are all going to die from it. So today we'll be unpacking some numbers, at least loosely, and once again providing a little lesson in numeracy, lest you all be scared by the fearmongers, who prey on the innumerate.

This "new" variant first cropped up in India in February, and, the world being the global melting pot it is, the first U.S. case appeared sometime in early April. So it ain't that new. At first, there weren't many cases of it in the U.S., but then we were warned that, because it's so transmissible, it would spread like wildfire throughout our nation, killing the vulnerable and overwhelming our hospitals.

Indeed, we've since learned that, by early June, the variant accounted for 6% of all U.S. cases. By mid-June, it was 10%. By late June, it was approaching 20%. The horror!

Okay, wait a minute. When it comes to percentages, the denominator matters. What else was happening as that percentage was increasing?

Cases were falling.

That's important for two reasons. First, all else being equal, if the denominator (total cases) is falling, the percentage (Delta cases divided by total cases) will increase.

In early June, the seven-day average of daily new cases was about 16,000. By mid-June, it was less than 14,000. By late June, it was around 12,000. Oh, and back in April, when the percentage was minuscule? It was around 65-75,000.

Mind you, these are daily new cases. So consider the cumulative effect of total cases. More existing cases will be Delta cases, and as the daily case rate falls, plus most of those prior cases recover and are no longer active cases (more on that later) - well, that denominator is really going to come down. So the percentage is going to continue to rise, until yes, Virginia, all U.S. cases will eventually be the Delta variant.

The second reason that it's important that cases are falling is that, if this thing is so highly contagious ... well, how can that be? I mean, more than 180 million Americans are unvaccinated. Take out kids, and you still have at least 100 million unvaccinated Americans. (Of course, about 30 million people have recovered from the virus, and thus have antibodies, but the "experts" would have us believe that the immunity game has miraculously changed, and only vaccines can protect us now.) So if this thing were that transmissible, and everyplace - including New York and California - is open, people are traveling and dining out, etc., shouldn't cases be rising? And I don't mean the little blips we might see here and there for a week or so, I mean really taking off?

Now, remember when I said that we'd circle back (oops - sorry) to the fact that most of those prior cases recover and are no longer active? How does the Curmudgeon know that, and what does it mean?

Well, I know it because the seven-day average of daily new deaths is falling, too. In March, before the first U.S. Delta case, it was 1-2,000. By the end of April, after Delta had arrived here, it was 722. Early June, under 400. Late June, under 275.

This is proof positive that most of the people who get the Delta variant recover. But do you know what else it's proof of?

It's not more deadly than previous variants.

So, the "experts" and their partners, the media, are lying to you once again. Why would they do that?

Remember, the message is that, if you're not vaccinated, Delta's gonna get ya.

That's right, this lie is just another part of the massive campaign to get e'rbody vaccinated. Just like the Ohio lottery and the free tickets to Sporting KC matches and the NASCAR ads and the celebrities lining up to get their shots on TV.

See, it went like this: "We got 'em to stay home, we got 'em to wear masks, but dammit, we can't even get half of them to get the vaccine! We've tried bribing them, begging them, appealing to their patriotism, guilting them, threatening them, discriminating against them ... so by God, we've gotta do it the way we got 'em to stay home and wear masks: we'll scare the bejeebers out of 'em!"

So now you know. They're banking on you not understanding that the denominator matters, not looking at the case and death numbers and seeing that they're falling, and actually buying all this hooey that they're selling.

Don't do it. Your chances of choking to death on a Biscoff cookie on a Delta flight are probably higher than dying of the Delta variant. So remember: small bites, and chew your food.