Hype Begets Hysteria

Calm down, people. All the hype in the mainstream media (MSM, for anyone who by now doesn't know that abbreviation) warning us of the widespread return of masks, lockdowns, and other stringent measures has led to hysteria over the fear of such things. Hysteria is defined as "exaggerated emotion." A synonym for exaggerated is overstated. And emotion is not fact- or data-based.

On Friday, July 16, the Dow sold off by nearly 300 points. The MSM screeched that the market was fearful about the "huge spike" in cases due to the spread of the Delta variant. In fact, that was not the case. That sell-off was sparked by inflation fears (also over-hyped and overblown, but that's a topic for another post). But then, on the next trading day, the Dow sold off by more than 700 points, and this time it was over fears of a return to lockdowns that could once again stall economic activity.

Hysteria.

Let's first look at the data, then look at what jurisdictions are actually doing. Then we'll play "what-if," and examine the scenario of another lockdown (which isn't going to happen).

Before we get into all that, let me say this: the Delta variant is real. It is resulting in an increase in cases. It is indeed dominating new cases, which is a function of simple math, as I explained in a recent post; it is merely crowding out other variants that have run their course. It is, in fact, more infectious than other variants. It is resulting in hot spots, like Southwest Missouri, where I have some relatives who work in hospitals. Those hospitals have people in the ED waiting for beds because they're at capacity, and their ventilators are full. People can't get oxygen for home care. So I'm not trying to downplay it. I'm merely trying to put it in its proper perspective, looking at it broadly, and not just through the lens of isolated hot spots.

The MSM loves to hype numbers that they either don't understand, or that they manipulate in hopes that you won't understand. One such example, recently reported, is that cases have more than doubled in the last two weeks!!!

Okay ... what does that look like in actual numbers? Well, it looks like the graph below. And if you want those numbers, the most recent seven-day average of new cases is about 33,700, vs. a little over 15,000 two weeks ago.

Folks, that's an increase of 15,000 cases, or less than .05% of the U.S. population. The current seven-day average of new cases, discounting the period from mid-May to now, is the lowest since June 2020. We weren't shut down then. The average on January 12 of this year was nearly 255,000. We weren't shut down then (except for California and New York).

Also, look at the trajectory of the line. The fall/winter 2020 spike was far steeper than the recent, Delta-driven one. In part, that's because over 55% of the U.S. population has received at least one vaccine dose, and another 10% of the population have antibodies.

Now, let's look at the mortality trend.

See? Average daily deaths are declining. (And yes, each death is a tragedy.) In part, this is because medical professionals are better able to treat cases. They're not just waiting until someone needs a ventilator, then putting them on one. (Of course, they're still not using drugs like HCQ or Ivermectin in most cases.) Another reason is that most of the elderly population has been vaccinated (or infected and, tragically, has succumbed), so those infected are less likely to die. I personally know of an entire family that was recently infected by the Delta variant. Eight people, ages 18 to 65. While all were quite ill, none were hospitalized.

For these reasons, and perhaps because of the innate nature of the Delta variant itself, its mortality rate is 0.3%, less than one-sixth that of the Alpha (UK) variant. It would almost seem that we'd want a rapidly spreading but less lethal version of the virus, to quickly increase herd immunity. Of course, the Faucis and Walenskys of the world would have us believe that herd immunity is only achieved through vaccination.

Let's look at the numbers out of Spain, which was one of the hardest-hit countries early in the pandemic. Spain's recent numbers have been as high or higher than at the peak of the pandemic, in January. Their seven-day average is up eight-fold in recent weeks, and is near the January high.

But again, look at deaths:

The most recent seven-day average is 14. The most recent daily total is seven. In a country with nearly 50 million people. Heck, that's fewer people than were shot to death in Chicago last weekend, and its population is only 2.7 million.

So what is Spain doing about this surge in cases? What draconian measures have Spanish officials put in place?

Spain is wide open for U.S. travelers. No vaccine requirement. No negative test result. Just fill out a form, probably similar to the one you have to fill out when you go to the doctor: "No, I don't have symptoms. No, I haven't been in contact with anyone who's tested positive." Etc. And -

No masks.

Now, in the Catalan region, where Barcelona is located, they have implemented a rather austere curfew:

12:30 a.m.

I don't know about you, but I don't recall the last time I was outside my home at that hour.

Let's look at what measures have been taken closer to home. It's true that Los Angeles County recently reinstated its indoor mask mandate. However, the Sheriff responded immediately and publicly by saying that the mandate would not be enforced. And California Gov. Gavin Newsom is reportedly very upset at L.A. County for reinstating the mandate. Why, given his previous uber-strict lockdown measures? Simple: the unpopular governor is facing a recall election, and he'd rather people forget those measures, which is harder to do if they have a mask on their face. Oh, and L.A. County is the most populous county in the state.

Another 11 governors - a bipartisan group, including the very liberal governor of Washington, have gone on record as saying that they're not going to reinstate masking. The Washington governor cited vaccine availability as the reason masks aren't needed. See? These governors know that if they tell people they have to mask up again, the vaccination rates in their states will grind to a halt. Why get vaccinated if I'm going to have to wear a mask anyway? They're banking on the fence-sitters slowly but surely getting the vaccine. That, and they don't want to face the inevitable backlash.

The very liberal governor of New Mexico fully reopened that state on June 30, in spite of the trend in cases. New cases in the state have since nearly tripled (I'm mimicking the MSM here), but again, the numbers matter: they're up from a seven-day average of 58 at the end of June, to 145 yesterday. In a state with more than 2 million people. Still, the state gets a lot of tourism. She could shut that down to avoid importing the Delta strain from hot spots in other states. But nope. She said that when they reached her vaccination goal of 60%, she'd fully reopen the state, and leave it that way. And, unlike most politicians, she's kept her promise.

It's also true that the American Pediatric Association issued a ridiculous recommendation that all children over the age of 2 be masked in schools. This followed a similar recommendation made by the Health Dept. in the county where I live. Yet, last night, the school board in the district in which I live voted unanimously to not require masks or vaccinations for the upcoming school year.

Unanimously.

Why? Because the parent turnout at the school board meeting during which the vote took place was very vocal, and was also unanimous in its opposition to requiring kids to wear masks or be vaccinated.

Politicians know they'll face a massive backlash if they reinstate these measures. They know that, this time, compliance will be minimal, and that law enforcement has no appetite for enforcement. They know that these people vote. And another shutdown? Fuhgeddaboutit. We didn't shut down again in January. It's not happening now.

Okay, I'll play along. What if it does? Most of the shutdowns in 2020 ensued in late March, and lasted through the end of May. Remember what happened?

Many of my friends opined that it would take at least two to three years for the economy to recover. That we were headed into the worst recession we'd experience in our lifetimes. That millions of businesses would close permanently, and never be replaced. But I predicted a different outcome here.

What actually ensued was exactly what I forecast: a bottom-up, vs. a top-down, recession. Only a limited number of sectors were affected: restaurants, retail, hotels, cruise lines, airlines, movie theaters. (Even restaurants and retailers were able to offer curbside service to keep some business.) Those businesses employ a lot of people. But those people don't make a lot of money.

The top of the economy - sectors employing people earning higher incomes - was relatively unscathed. Moreover, our elected officials stupidly supplemented those incomes with stimulus payments they didn't need. So demand for dining out, shopping, traveling, cruising, flying, and entertainment was still there. And people could still afford those things. They just couldn't do them, because the venues were closed. The ships were in port. The planes were grounded.

I predicted that things would come back very quickly, once we reopened. That, for the businesses that did fail, new businesses would step in and take their place. And that's exactly what's happened. Look where we are now: an economy expected to grow at the fastest pace in 40 years this year, with demand for houses and cars so high that it's causing price anomalies never before seen, and record numbers of job openings. (We'd have record-low unemployment, too, if we'd drop the unnecessary unemployment benefit supplement.) New restaurants opening right and left, with long wait times. Help wanted signs everywhere.

So, if there's another shutdown - and the odds of that are about as high as the odds of you catching, and dying from, the Delta variant - we're going to see a short disruption in the economy, painful for many, followed by a soaring recovery.

But there are some other reasons it won't happen. Again, there will be no appetite for enforcement. More businesses will refuse to comply. There will be massive lawsuits brought by the businesses like airlines and cruise lines that could be forced to comply by the Gestap - er, CDC. And, I'd like to think that there are enough cooler heads in power to understand that the knock-on, unintended supply chain consequences we're seeing today are nothing compared to what would ensue from another lockdown.

Calm down. Turn off the TV. Go for a walk. It's not going to happen.