Thus begins my first foray into the world of blogging. There are several reasons I’m doing this. First, I have a passion for economic and market discourse, developed over the course of the last 25 years, which I’ve spent studying and working in the fixed-income markets and financial institutions. I have an even greater passion for teaching. Throughout my career, I’ve worked diligently to educate clients, and I pride myself on being able to break arcane topics down into easily-understood language. I’ve always said that smart people are a dime a dozen on Wall Street, but rare is he who can explain the most complex matters to his mother.
Second, increasing numbers of people – not just from among my firm’s clients, but beyond their industry and even beyond US borders – are reading the daily and weekly commentary that I produce on our firm’s website, at www.cnbsnet.com (the daily commentary is called Market Update, and the weekly piece is called Food for Thought, a column I started a number of years back when I was Chief Economist for our former parent company). Part of that undoubtedly is due to the excellent job my staff does writing the commentary when I’m out of the office, but in any event it seems to have a following.
I’d like to think there’s a fundamental reason for that. We tend to buck conventional "wisdom," focusing on what the numbers really tell us, not the emotional reaction of the markets. We’re after the naked truth. A former boss once told me, "You seem to think it’s your job to be the one to say the emperor’s naked," to which I replied, "Isn’t it everyone’s?"
I describe Food for Thought as "sometimes irreverent, often contrarian, but always entertaining." I hope to be able to bring even more of that to this space. Representing a company with owners and clients, I naturally have to temper some of what I say. Here, I can be a little more free-wheeling, as the opinions expressed here are solely my own, and not those of my employer or any of its owners, clients or other stakeholders (that was an embedded legal disclaimer, in the event you missed it).
As such, I’ll also be able to write in the first person on this space, which makes for somewhat less cumbersome writing. I’ve always avoided the first person on the company site, due to the old adage that there’s no "I" in "team." Here, I can take Leon’s view: there ain’t no "we," either. I’ll also be able to discuss topics of interest outside the economy and the markets more freely, like politics, faith, music, and small-college football, all things I’m passionate about.
This particular medium will also allow for feedback, which the company website does not. So I’m hopeful that anyone who reads this will feel free to chime in and comment. Agree, disagree, ask questions – anything goes. The only rule is: "Keep it civil."
Regarding the title: lately, I’ve been so bearish that I feel that I can only be described as a "curmudgeon." But even in bullish mode, I take a curmudgeonly view of the pundits who keep trying to convince everyone we’re in a "new economy." Folks, we haven’t been in a new economy since we were all wearing animal skins and trading rocks. Asset bubbles are at least as old as the Dutch tulip bulb crisis, yet we keep creating them. The business cycle is like Mark Twain: rumors of its demise have been greatly exaggerated. And the markets bring to mind Col. Jessep to Lt. Kaffee in "A Few Good Men": "You want the truth? You can’t handle the truth!"
So here it is, for what it’s worth. As Alice Cooper said, "Welcome to my nightmare, I think you’re gonna like it."
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