More Political Musings

Since this is an historic election (the first serious African-American candidate, the first serious female-American candidate, the oldest candidate) I had wanted to buy bobble-heads of all the candidates, assuming I could find them.

Well, in Hillary's case, it turns out it's unnecessary - the woman IS a bobble-head. I watched coverage of her campaign speech in El Paso last night (after Obama mopped the floor with her in DC, MD and VA). After every point she made, she nodded her head up and down. Apparently she's so insecure about her standing now that Obama is cleaning her clock, she has to reassure herself that SOMEONE agrees with her points - even if it's her.

She's sure focusing on Texas - she should, since if she loses there (or Ohio), you can pretty well put a fork in her. She's spending most of her time around the border, focusing on the Hispanic vote, which has tended to go in her favor versus Obama. However, she may be missing the point. Obama will surely garner the African-American vote, and the way the delegates work in Texas works in his favor in light of that.

It seems that delegates in Texas go to the particular state Senate districts a given candidate wins. There are two largely African-American districts, one in Dallas and one in Houston, that account for a combined 13 delegates. By contrast, two largely Hispanic districts along the Mexican border offer only six delegates between them. So Hillary could win even a majority of districts, but if they're not the right districts, she loses.

Some people, mistrustful of the Clintons (no! really?), think that even if Obama wins more delegates, Bill will start calling in his markers among the super-delegates who have yet to cast a vote ("remember when I appointed you ..."). But I doubt that he has enough residual influence to pull off an upset in that scenario. Politics is all about what you've done for me lately, and riding the wave of momentum. If Obama's got the mo, the super-delegates will forget Billary like yesterday's news. One of them already anonymously said that if she fails to win Ohio AND Texas, she's finished.

Hillary has also hinted at legal action to make Florida and Michigan count. That's so typical. She was fine with the rules before those primaries (although she broke at least one of them, campaigning in Florida when the candidates had agreed not to). But after she won races that effectively no one was entering, now she wants them to count. If I were Obama, I'd say, fine - but now that they count, let's re-do them, with full-on campaigning and a fresh vote. Given his ability to raise money relative to hers, it would be a safe bet for him.

How ironic would it be for Florida to become a legal ground zero for the Democratic nomination?