New Super Bowl Indicator

I tend to look for indicators in ordinary, everyday, anecdotal things. You can learn a lot just by looking at things around you, as Peter Lynch noted in his seminal book on investing, "One Up On Wall Street."

So here's one from the Super Bowl. But first, mad props to the NY Giants. This was a game I was hoping both teams could win. I felt bad for Brady, and for veterans like Junior Seau. But I also wanted to see Eli Manning finally get the love. Plus, the NY roster had two NCAA Division II guys - Kevin Boss, the rookie TE filling in for Shockey who had a big catch and run, and reserve DL and special teamer Dave Tollefson, who played for my Gorillas' rival, NW Missouri State. Always good to see D2 kids succeed.

Then, when that pansy Belichick headed to the locker room with one second on the clock, I was thrilled the Pats got beat. What a sore loser.

Anyway, back to the indicator. The best ads, in my opinion, were the E*Trade talking baby ads. Truly inspired. Now, for those of you who didn't know, E*Trade was the poorest performer in the S&P 500 last year, losing more than 84% of its value. Yet it had the best Super Bowl ads. At $2.7 million a pop.

This brings to mind Super Bowl XXXIV, back in 2000. The hot ad that year was the pets.com ad featuring its sock puppet dog. Pets.com was another money-losing venture, and it ultimately failed in the dot-com bubble that burst later that year. But it sure put out some good (and expensive) Super Bowl ads. By the next Super Bowl, we were in recession.

So here's the indicator: when the leading Super Bowl ads come from companies that can't make a buck - but they're willing to spend millions just to show off their creativity - bad economic times are ahead. You just don't throw a multi-million dollar ad budget at a losing proposition.